What’s going on in the Global Week Ahead?

• Some of U.S. President Trump's tariffs are expected to come into effect
• Before key February U.S. Federal jobs data lands, on Friday
• Mainland China policymakers meet for an annual congress, on Wednesday
• Europe’s central bank is tipped to cut its policy rate again, on Thursday, and 
• The first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal nears its end

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Takes Another Big Step Higher

"Take him seriously… but not literally" seems to be the advice from would-be Trump whisperers to anyone pondering why market reaction to the U.S. president's often-confusing messaging on tariffs has become increasingly muted.

A 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada is going ahead on March 4th, while China gets an extra 10% on top of the 10% that came into force on February 4th.

Trump says he'll slap 25% on European imports of "cars and all of the things,” which has knocked the euro off one-month highs and dented regional stocks.

But uncertainty is rising.

The "Trump bump" to growth investors had banked on does not appear to be happening, and the reality of widespread tariffs on imports of anything from avocados to building supplies is starting to hit home.
 

(2) On Friday, FEB Federal Nonfarm Jobs Report Data Lands

U.S. jobs data on March 7th comes as worrisome indicators about business activity and consumer confidence raise yellow flags about the economy and a push by the Trump administration to slash the federal workforce.

The February payrolls report is expected to show an increase of +133K jobs, according to a Reuters poll. Payroll growth slowed to +143K jobs in January, below estimates, but the unemployment rate stood at 4.0%, its lowest since May.

Meanwhile, President Trump's administration ramped up the groundwork for those large-scale layoffs, as downsizing czar Elon Musk pledged to move quickly to slash spending.

Tens of thousands of U.S. government workers have been fired in recent weeks, according to a Reuters tally of announcements tracking Trump's plan to shrink the federal workforce.
 

(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) Cuts Its Policy Rate — Again

The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates again on Thursday, but markets have not been this uncertain in a while on what comes next.

Investors predict 85 basis points to be shaved off interest rates by year-end — three cuts and a chance of a fourth to put the benchmark rate near 2%. But in a sign of uncertainty, traders expect less than a 70% chance of an April cut.

Policymakers look equally divided — a top hawk has even questioned whether ECB policy is still restrictive.

U.S. tariff risks, a new German government, a potential Ukraine ceasefire and a surge in expected defense spending could all shape the pace of cuts in the months ahead.
 

(4) On Wednesday, Mainland China National People’s Congress Kicks Off

China's highly anticipated National People's Congress (NPC) meeting kicks off on Wednesday — the stage for policymakers to unveil key economic targets, budget and policy goals for the year ahead.

Despite uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and mounting Sino-U.S. tensions, Beijing is expected to stick to its 2025 growth target at around +5%, though a Reuters poll showed economists expect +4.5% this year.

Meanwhile, the inflation target is likely to be lowered as deflationary pressures persist in the world's second-largest economy.

A show of greater fiscal support is also expected, as authorities seek to boost consumption and bolster growth — though this will likely result in the widening of the budget deficit to 4% of gross domestic product, its highest on record.
 

(5) Will There Be a Successful “Phase Two” of Talks Between Israel and Hamas?

The first phase of the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas comes to an end on Saturday, with no clear path charted as yet on how the two sides can emerge from the war that has shaped the region for nearly 1-1/2 years.

Israel negotiators headed to Cairo seek to extend a first ceasefire phase, in the apparent aim of securing the release of more hostages while delaying any final deal on Gaza's future.

Hamas says it is prepared for second phase talks and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Trump said on Thursday there were "pretty good talks going on" regarding Gaza, but offered little detail.

The devastating conflict has reverberated through energy markets, as well as stocks and bonds in the region. Much will hinge on the outcome of the negotiations.
 

Three Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

(1) Carvana (CVNA Quick QuoteCVNA - Free Report) : This is a $223 a share stock with a market cap of $48.3B. It is found in the Internet – Commerce Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Carvana Co. is a leading e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars.

Carvana's end-to-end online business model that covers every aspect of used-car retailing — including sales, financing, logistics, inspection and repair centers, as well as software development — has transformed traditional used-car sales in several ways.

With a mission of changing the way people buy cars, Carvana is harnessing the power of digitization and applying it to the auto industry. It is changing customers' shopping experience by letting them find the perfect car from the comfort of homes without having to haggle with sales people.

Thanks to advanced technology, customers can browse through its broad inventory of high-quality used cars and get a clear and complete view of the interior and exterior of each car.

Once the customers make their selection, the vehicle is either delivered to their home as soon as the next day or available for pick up at a car vending machine.

(2) Advantest (ATEYY Quick QuoteATEYY - Free Report) : This is a $57 a share s tock with a market cap of $44.8B. It is found in the Electronics-Measuring Instruments Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Advantest Corp. is one of the world's leading automatic test equipment suppliers to the semiconductor industry, and is also a producer of electronic and optoelectronic instruments and systems.

A global company, Advantest has long offered total ATE solutions, and serves the industry in every component of semiconductor test: tester, handler, mechanical and electrical interfaces, and software.

Its logic, memory, mixed-signal and RF testers, and device handlers, are integrated into the most advanced semiconductor fabrication lines in the world.

(3) Garmin (GRMN Quick QuoteGRMN - Free Report) : This is a $224 a share stock with a market cap of $43.6B. It is found in the Electronics-Miscellaneous Products Industry. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Olathe, Kansas-based, Garmin, Ltd. is an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) of navigation and communication equipment that incorporate the global positioning system (GPS)-based technology.

The company’s diverse portfolio of handheld, portable and fixed-mount GPS-enabled devices provides geographical location and navigation data using the GPS satellite system.

Garmin reported revenues of $6.3 billion in 2024. The company reports operations under five segments: Outdoor, Fitness, Marine, Auto and Aviation, which generated 31.2%, 28.2%, 17%, 9.7% and 13.9% of revenues, respectively.

• Outdoor products currently include handhelds, wearables, golfing devices, dog tracking/training devices and action cameras
• The Fitness segment offers running and cycling products of various kinds and includes platforms for connecting and sharing data with others
• Marine products include chart plotters, fish finders, sounders, autopilot systems, radars, instruments, radios, handhelds and wrist-worn devices, sailing and entertainment products
• Auto offers personal navigation devices (PNDs), infotainment solutions and mobile applications
• Aviation offers integrated avionics or flight decks; panel mounted navigation, traffic, audio, transponder, weather and other products; portable and wearable solutions; and mobile apps

Products are manufactured at its Xizhi, Jhongli and LinKou facilities in Taiwan, its Yangzhou facility in China and its Olathe and Salem, Oregon facilities in the U.S. They are sold through a big network of independent dealers across 100 countries globally.

Garmin products are distributed through a hybrid sales channel system that utilizes a network of distributors and retailers. They are also sold directly to OEMs that integrate the GPS capability into their end product.
 

Key Global Macro

It’s the turn of the monthly calendar.

So, lots of manufacturing PMIs start the trading week off.

On Monday, Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. I see a prior borderline 48.9 reading.

Mainland China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI also comes out. I see a prior 50.1 reading was put up, as usual.

The HCOB Euro Area manufacturing PMI come out too. I see a 47.3 consensus call, falling in line with the prior 47.3 reading.

The Euro Area core HICP consumer price inflation reading for FEB comes out too. That has been running at +2.7% y/y. Broad HICP was at +2.5% y/y.

The U.S/S&P global manufacturing PMI for FEB comes out. I see 51.6 is the consensus, in line with the prior 51.6 reading.

The more important ISM manufacturing PMI for FEB come out too. I see a 50.3 prior JAN reading.

On Tuesday, the Fed’s Barkin and Williams give speeches.

On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP private job additions number for FEB comes out. I see a +183K prior JAN reading.

The Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions comes out.

On Thursday, U.S. Challenger job cuts for FEB come out. 49.79K was the prior reading.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims hit a 3-month high at 242K last week. We get a fresh week of data in.

The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting wraps up. Their main refi policy rate is at 2.9%. Traders expect another cut.

On Friday, Mainland China’s trade balance figures come out for FEB. I see a $752.9B surplus is running.

That country has a massive $3.2T in FX reserves now. We get those fresh numbers too.

U.S. nonfarm payroll data for FEB comes out. I see a prior +143K job additions number for JAN, though that will get revised too.

The U.S. household unemployment rate also comes out. It is at 4.0%.
 

Conclusion

On Feb. 26th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian delivered his latest four key Q4-24 earnings points—

(1) With more than 90% of the earnings reports already in, we can safely say that it has been a good reporting cycle.

The growth pace showing a notable accelerating trend and companies comfortably beating consensus estimates.

(2) Total earnings for the 456 S&P500 companies that have reported results are up +13.6% from the same period last year, on +5.5% higher revenues.

77.6% beat EPS estimates. 66.7% beat revenue estimates.

(3) The reporting focus is shifting to the Retail sector, where the brick-and-mortar operators are on deck to report results in the days ahead.

However, more than half of the Zacks Retail sector companies have already reported Q4 results.

(4) For the Zacks Retail sector, we now have Q4 results from 95.3% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P500 index.

Total earnings for these companies are up +32.3% from the same period last year, on +7.0% higher revenues.

72.0% beat EPS estimates. 72.0% beat revenue estimates.

Excluding Amazon’s results from the reported Retail sector numbers?

The Q4 earnings and revenue growth rates adjust down to +4.6% and +5.4%, respectively.

That’s it for me.

Enjoy a productive week, trading and investing!

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist